AI analysis for the people deploying capital.
No hype. No filler. Just the signal that matters for your portfolio.
Deep dives on AI infrastructure, competitive dynamics, and value capture.
Written by Mallika Iyer, Former Head of Product, Google AI. Former CoreWeave.
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July 24 Is Not Priced Into AI Infrastructure
The 2026 hyperscaler capex bridge carries $13 to $38 billion of unpriced tariff cost that did not appear in any Q4 earnings call. Section 122 expires on July 24, but the duties do not come off - only the legal authority collecting them rotates. The 60 to 90 day handoff window is the tradeable event.
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The Anthropic Leak and the Daemon Tax: What KAIROS Means for Inference Economics
On March 31, Anthropic accidentally shipped 512,000 lines of Claude Code's unobfuscated source to npm. Inside: a daemon called KAIROS that converts every seat into persistent inference. The cost model that underpins the GPU infrastructure buildout just changed.
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The Decode Tax: Who Survives When Custom Silicon Demands Hyperscaler Scale
Nvidia spent $20B on Groq to fix the part of inference where GPUs waste 99.8% of their silicon. The distribution surface question is settled. The open question is who captures margin in the repricing.
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