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Long-form analysis on AI infrastructure, competitive dynamics, and investment implications. First 300 words free, full analysis for subscribers.
The 2026 hyperscaler capex bridge carries $13 to $38 billion of unpriced tariff cost that did not appear in any Q4 earnings call. Section 122 expires on July 24, but the duties do not come off - only the legal authority collecting them rotates. The 60 to 90 day handoff window is the tradeable event.
On March 31, Anthropic accidentally shipped 512,000 lines of Claude Code's unobfuscated source to npm. Inside: a daemon called KAIROS that converts every seat into persistent inference. The cost model that underpins the GPU infrastructure buildout just changed.
Nvidia spent $20B on Groq to fix the part of inference where GPUs waste 99.8% of their silicon. The distribution surface question is settled. The open question is who captures margin in the repricing.